While it is still too early to tell who organized the coup or even to fully analyze Erdogan’s behavior afterwards, these recent developments are notable.
Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, centre, Republican People’s Party leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu, second left, National Movement Party leader Devlet Bahceli, left and Prime Minister Binali Yildirim look on at the start of their meeting in Ankara, Turkey, Monday, July 25, 2016
It’s been over a week since the Turkish coup has taken place and still no one definitively knows what happened, who was behind it, and who was originally meant to benefit. It is rather obvious now that, since the coup did not succeed, Erdogan will find himself in a much safer position domestically than before it took place by virtue of the massive governmental and military purge that has taken place in its aftermath. Internationally, however, is another question.
Still, no one fully knows whether or not Erdogan was actually set to benefit from the coup to begin with. Was Erdogan behind the coup himself? Was Fethullah Gulen behind the coup? Were the nationalists behind the coup? Did Erdogan and the United States stage the coup together to allow for a crackdown and double-down on the nationalist faction? Was the coup actually the work of the United States attempting to overthrow Erdogan over his previous moves toward warming relations with Russia? All of these questions have been asked but none have yielded any definitive answer.
What is certain, however, is that Erdogan’s behavior in the weeks after the coup will tell us more about who was actually behind the coup.
While it is still too early to tell who organized the coup or even to fully analyze Erdogan’s behavior afterwards, some recent developments are notable.
For instance, on August 9, Erdogan is expected to travel to St. Petersburg, Russia in order to take part in talks with Vladimir Putin for the purposes of speeding up the repair of Turkish/Russian relations.
Announcing the August 9 visit, Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Mehmet Simsek stated that Russia “isn’t just our close and friendly neighbor, but also a strategic partner.”
“Today,” he said. “we are here to normalize the situation and our relations as soon as possible and at an accelerated pace since they were disrupted on November 24.” Simsek was referring to the downing of the Russian jet fighter over Syria by Turkey that took place months ago.
Bloomberg news describes the upcoming meeting in glowing terms and as more than a mere diplomatic formality. The agency writes,
The attempt to overthrow Erdogan has turbo-charged efforts to restore ties between Turkey and Russia that were already under way after the crisis over the warplane. The rapprochement may even lead to a political realignment in the region. Erdogan has drawn strong criticism from the U.S. and other NATO allies for a sweeping crackdownon tens of thousands of alleged opponents following the failed coup, while Turkey has heaped praise on Russia for its support since the crisis erupted on July 15.
Simsek emphasized Turkey’s gratitude to Russia at the talks with Dvorkovich on restoring economic ties, saying: “You supported democracy, supported the government. Thank you very much.”
. . . . .
Turkey received “unconditional support” from Russia over the coup attempt, Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said in an interview to Haberturk TV on Monday. He also said anti-U.S. sentiment is rising in the country after the failed revolt.
Putin ordered the Russian government last month to begin lifting sanctions imposed on Turkey after Erdogan sent a letter offering “sympathy and profound condolences” to the family of the pilot who died when Turkey shot down his plane during the November mission to bomb Islamic State and other militants in Syria.
Putin had accused Turkey of a “stab in the back” for downing the jet and railed against the “ruling gang” in Ankara, as Russia retaliated with a ban on charter flights that harmed tourism and sanctions on imports of some Turkish fruits and vegetables. In December, Russia directly accused Erdogan’s family of being involved in illegal oil trading with Islamic State, a charge Turkey rejected.
Bloomberg also mentions a renewed interest and hope for the Turkish-Stream pipeline. It reports,
Turkey confirmed interest in resuming the Turkish Stream gas-pipeline project, Alexander Medvedev, deputy chief executive officer of Gazprom PJSC, told reporters after taking part in talks between Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak and Zeybekci. A decision on an agreement will be made after Putin and Erdogan meet, he said.
Russia shelved talks in December on the planned Black Sea link that would make Turkey a linchpin in Europe’s energy supplies by 2020, with Gazprom saying the route was still possible if political relations improved.
Meanwhile, Turkey continues to launch accusations against the United States and demand, to no avail at least at the current time, that Fethullah Gulen be extradited. Some sources in Turkey have even pointed the finger at U.S. Commander Of The International Security Assistance Force, a NATO-led security mission in Afghanistan, as the organizer of the coup. Pro-Erdogan Turkish newspaper Yeni Safak reports,
A former U.S. commander of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), a NATO-led security mission in Afghanistan, was the organizer of the July 15 military coup attempt in Turkey, sources said.
General John F. Campbell was one of the top figures who organized and managed the soldiers behind the failed coup attempt in Turkey, sources close to ongoing legal process of pro-coup detainees said.
Campbell also managed more than $2 billion money transactions via UBA Bank in Nigeria by using CIA links to distribute among the pro-coup military personnel in Turkey.
The ongoing investigation unveiled that Campbell had paid at least two secret visits to Turkey since May, until the day of the coup attempt.
The coup plot that was foiled by the comprehensive effort of Turkish Nation, including its citizens, politicians, media and police forces, was organized by the Fethullah Terrorist Organization (FETO) led-by so-called cleric Fethullah Gülen who has been living in self-exile in America for several years.
American Intelligence, Military and other institutions are accused of supporting the FETO leader Gülen and his gangs for the military coup.
Military sources said Campbell, who was the commander of ISAF between August 26, 2014 and May 1, 2016, had made some top secret meetings in Erzurum military base and Adana İnicrlik Airbase.
İncirlik Airbase has been used by the U.S. Military for conducting the anti-Daesh campaign in Syria.
Military sources said that Campbell was the man, who directed the process of trending / blacklisting the military officers in the base.
If the coup attempt was successful, Campbell would visit Turkey in a short time, according to the sources.
The Nigeria branch of the United Bank of Africa (UBA) was the main base for the last six-months of money transactions for the coup plotters.
Millions of dollars of money has been transferred from Nigeria to Turkey by a group of CIA personnel.
The money, which has been distributed to an 80-person special team of the CIA, was used to convince pro-coup generals.
More than 2 billion dollars were distributed during the process leading to the coup.
After taking money from their bank accounts, the CIA team hand delivered it to the terrorists under the military dresses.
In the Persian Gulf, accusations are also starting to circulate with Qatar’s Minister of State for Defense claiming that both Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates supported the coup. According to Khalid al-Attiyah, “This document [which he posted on his twitter account]reveals that a Saudi Emir and a top Emirati military official have been aware, in advance, of an imminent plot to topple the Turkish President through their participation in the Anatolian Eagle maneuvers held last May. However, they refrained from informing the Turkish authorities.” According to the document, the coup was scheduled for August but took place on July 15th.
Likewise, fallout is taking place in Europe with the EU warning Erdogan that his reaction to the coup may jeopardize his chances of being admitted into the EU. In fact, Brussels has warned that, if Turkey decides to go ahead with its reinstatement of the death penalty for the putchists, its bid for membership would be effectively over.
These recent developments (a greater trend toward Russia and continued shaky relations with Europe and the United States) tend to lend credence to claims by those suggesting that the coup was initiated by West (the United States in particular) as a response to Turkey’s recent warming of relations with Russia. These individuals claim that the U.S., in fear that they were losing an ally and useful pawn in the war against Syria to Russia, attempted to overthrow Erdogan and replace him with a more amenable government or, at the very least, frighten Erdogan into playing ball.
One such individual is researcher and analyst, Mimi al-Laham (aka Syrian Girl, Partisan Girl). She says,
“I don’t believe it [the coup] is [an inside job], the man had to go on FaceTime to tell his people to come out in the streets and protest, it was quite humiliating! The reason I don’t believe it was, it’s because a few days before the coup, about 4 days, Turkey started making statements that they were sorry for shooting down the Russian jet, and they wanted to re-affirm their alliance with Russia, and they wanted to get closer to their regional allies. This was like a few days or weeks after Brexit. Basically, the EU wasn’t the same EU anymore.. and the Turkey wasn’t desperate to join it any-more, so Turkey decided to maybe come up with a different Foreign Policy, and Turkey is also unhappy with the agenda to create a Kurdish state in Syria, because that is going to create a Kurdish state in Turkey as well, and of-course, it is going to displace the Christian and Syrian population in Syria as a result, but I guess those people don’t matter, as long as the agenda is pushed.
But, Erdogan is / has been a criminal for the last 4 years, and there is no doubt that he has supported terrorism up until this day, but, he is not the biggest criminal: the biggest criminals were his puppet masters which were in the White House, because, obviously, those people are far more powerful, and those people – there is a lot of indication that it was actually the CIA that was behind it. There were reports that came out that Russia actually tipped off the Turks : the leader behind the coup is in Washington, and Washington has refused to extradite him.
If you look at the Media, the Main Stream Media, for some reason, even though we have been calling Erdogan a terrorist supporter for ages, only now have they decided: “Yep! Oh yea, yea, he is a terrorist supporter.”
France, just before the Nice attacks, or – I’m not quite sure but at-least before the coup, they shut down their Embassy in Turkey. I mean, France has made statements now that Erdogan can no longer be a partner against terror. It’s a joke, cause France itself has been openly arming terror for the last 4 years, and, of-course, so has Turkey : so what’s really going on is France is angry that Turkey is choosing to go a different way now, it’s leaning now towards trying to reverse the disaster it has created for itself, with this instability, with economic problems with Russia, taking advice and shooting down a Russian jet, all because they wanted to join the EU – which is on its way to collapsing.
This is how I read the situation, and I think that *the idea that they did it to themselves.. uhm, I think it comes from a hate and distrust of Erdogan, like a lack of understanding as to why sometimes puppets are just thrown away when they are no longer doing what they are told, or they are no longer useful – which – you know, it’s a confusing situation, but no, many people died, people are in exile, coup leaders are in jail, I don’t think he did it to himself, I think that Russia tipped him off about a CIA agent to get rid of him, and put in some-one else that was gonna maintain the status-quo, and not try to make friends with Russia.”
Still, as Tony Cartalucci writes in his article “Turkey’s Failed Coup A Gift From God,” if the United States was truly involved in the Turkish coup or even if the U.S. had merely facilitated the coup via the Gulen Movement, Turkey’s response has been “disproportionately subdued.” “No one is suggesting that Turkey would “go to war” with the United States,” writes Cartalucci, “but even amid diplomatic rows of far lesser significance, nations have expelled diplomats and withdrawn the use of their territory for specific uses by the nation in question. Turkey, so far, has done none of this in regards to the United States.”
If the U.S. was truly involved in the Turkish coup one would expect a number of actions to follow the incident. First, as Cartalucci suggests, we would expect to see the expulsion of diplomats and the expulsion of U.S. forces from Turkish territory, namely Incirlik Air Base. We would expect the closure of the rather large American embassy in Ankara. Likewise, Turkey would then be forced to rethink its membership in NATO since, despite the organization being based upon the concept of “collective defense,” no one came to Turkey’s aid even though the coup would be considered an overt act of war against the Turkish government.
We would also expect to see Turkey move closer to Russia, Iran, and possibly China as well as some elements of Europe. While international developments are clearly still in flux, we have seen at least some signs that Turkey is moving closer to Russia but, interestingly enough, signs that Turkey may be moving further away from Europe.
So there still stands as a distinct possibility that the United States was indeed involved in the coup but that it was not alone.
At this point in time, we can only watch and gauge the reactions of Turkey and the subsequent behavior of the Erdogan government. Will Turkey engage in punitive measures or will it double down against Syria, Russia, Iran, and political dissent within the country? Without being privy to inside information, Turkey’s behavior will tell us all we need to know in regards to who was behind this coup.
If Erdogan did indeed conspire with the United States to stage a coup and provide a pretext for a massive crackdown and purge of his political enemies, then the man known for narcissism and delusions of grandeur made one hell of a gutsy move that appears to be paying dividends in the form of solidifying his control over the country. If this is case, then Turkey is in for an even rougher ride and, unfortunately, so is Syria.
(Source / 28.07.2016)